Caitlyn Jenner, a former Olympic gold medalist and reality television star, is contemplating a second run for the governor's seat. On Monday, she took to X, formerly known as Twitter, to gauge public opinion on her potential candidacy. "I've been receiving numerous calls with strong opinions," she stated.
Jenner's fame skyrocketed after her victory in the decathlon at the 1976 Summer Olympics, a feat that earned her the moniker "the world's greatest athlete." As reported by Newsweek, she later married Kris Jenner in 1991 and became a familiar face on their family's reality show. In 2015, Jenner publicly identified as a trans woman during an interview with Diane Sawyer.
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November 26, 2024
A staunch Republican, Jenner has been an outspoken supporter of President-elect Donald Trump. She has been a frequent guest at his Palm Beach resort, Mar-a-Lago, attending fundraising events for Trump's 2024 campaign and his election night party.
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In 2021, Jenner vied for the governor's seat as a Republican in California's gubernatorial recall election against Governor Gavin Newsom. Despite Newsom's victory in retaining his office, he will be ineligible to run in 2026 due to term limits.
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Speculation is rife that Vice President Kamala Harris, who failed to secure the Democratic presidential nomination this year, may throw her hat into the gubernatorial race. Harris, a former California attorney general and senator, has a significant lead over other potential candidates, according to pre-2024 election polls. Approximately 72 percent of Democrats expressed their likelihood of supporting Harris for governor, as per a survey conducted by the University of California, Berkeley.
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Jenner, however, remains undeterred. "If I ran, and it was ultimately against Harris, I would destroy her," she confidently declared on X.
The political climate in California has recently veered to the right, potentially bolstering Jenner's chances in 2026. Despite housing over 20 percent of the nation's Democrats, California also boasts the highest number of registered Republicans at 5.48 million. The state's previous celebrity governors, Ronald Reagan and Arnold Schwarzenegger, were both Republicans.
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Although California remains a Democratic stronghold, Trump significantly improved his performance in the recent election compared to 2020 and 2016. Several of California's progressive officeholders were replaced by more moderate candidates in the 2024 election.
However, Matt Klink, a strategist, cautions that "statewide electability is always a challenge because California hasn't elected a Republican to statewide office for more than a decade and a half." Jenner's 2021 gubernatorial campaign faltered due to her limited knowledge of public policy, according to John Pitney, the former acting director of the Republican National Committee's research department.
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Pitney suggests that Jenner's chances could improve if she demonstrates a serious understanding of state issues. Otherwise, she will once again learn that celebrity status alone is insufficient for political success.
Klink concurs, stating that despite Jenner's high profile, her chances of securing the nomination are slim. He predicts that the race "will likely feature a traditional progressive Democrat and hopefully a left-of-center Independent candidate so that the race is at least competitive."
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Jenner, a conservative firebrand, "would make some noise, but she won't finish second," Klink asserts. Pitney, a political professor at Claremont McKenna College, warns that Jenner's candidacy could potentially divert votes from more serious Republican contenders, allowing two Democrats to advance to the November ballot.
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The list of potential successors to Newsom is "already long and deep," according to Klink. It includes Rick Caruso, the billionaire developer who ran as a Democrat against Karen Bass for Los Angeles mayor in 2022. Klink believes that Caruso, as an independent or moderate Democrat, stands a better chance of statewide election than a Republican candidate. However, he acknowledges that the heavily progressive Democratic base will play a significant role in selecting a candidate that aligns with the party's progressive leanings.
