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With over half of the adult population citing inflation as a top concern, surpassing issues such as immigration, crime, and abortion, the state of the economy is likely to be a decisive factor in the election, particularly in battleground states.
According to an analysis by ABC News, inflation rates have shown significant variation across four major cities located in battleground states: Detroit, Michigan; Phoenix, Arizona; Atlanta, Georgia; and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. In these states, the polling margin between the two candidates is razor-thin, with no more than a two-percentage-point difference, as reported by FiveThirtyEight.
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In Detroit, consumer prices have seen a 3.5% increase over the year ending in August, as per data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This figure is a percentage point above the national average, making it the highest inflation rate among the four cities examined. Gabriel Ehrlich, an economist at the University of Michigan, attributes this surge in prices to the rapid escalation of housing costs. He explains that the city's economic recovery after the 2008 Great Recession has led to population growth and a consequent rise in housing prices. However, Ehrlich acknowledges that this economic improvement offers little comfort to residents grappling with high costs.
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Phoenix, on the other hand, has an inflation rate of 2.3%, slightly lower than the national average. Housing prices, while still a significant factor, are rising at a slower pace of 3.5%, well below the national average of over 6%. Lee McPheters, director of the JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center at Arizona State University, attributes this moderation in price increases to Phoenix's efforts to boost home construction and address its supply shortage. He highlights that Phoenix is projected to construct approximately 20,000 apartments in 2024, marking an 88% increase from the apartment construction rate two years prior, according to the Maricopa Association of Governments.
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Atlanta, with an inflation rate of 1.7%, has the lowest rate among the swing-state cities examined by ABC News. Prices for essential products, including housing, meat, poultry, fish, and eggs, have risen at a slower pace than the national average. Gasoline prices and the cost of new and used cars have also seen a significant drop over the past year.
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In Philadelphia, consumer prices have climbed 3.4% over the year ending in August, nearly a percentage point higher than the national average. Prices for many food and beverage products are rising faster than the national average. Erasmus Kersting, a professor of economics at Villanova University, suggests that the sharp increase in prices for some food items may be due to a lack of competition among grocery stores in Philadelphia. He points out that two supermarket chains, Giant and ShopRite, accounted for 56% of the local grocery market in 2022, according to the Philadelphia Business Journal.
As the presidential race continues to heat up, the varying inflation rates across these key battleground states could significantly influence the election outcome. With the economy being a top concern for voters, the candidates' stance on economic policies, particularly those related to inflation and housing costs, will likely be under intense scrutiny.
The election's outcome, therefore, may hinge on how effectively each candidate addresses these pressing economic issues and their impact on the everyday lives of voters.
