Now, the billionaire investor is warning of how precarious US-China relations are and why we should all be concerned. According to Fox Business, Dalio wrote a LinkedIn article about his perspective on the “great power conflict.”.
To qualify his article, Dalio tweeted, “Recently, I described the big cycle template, consisting of five major forces. Today I’m sharing the follow-up article, focusing on the great power conflict and what’s going on with China. It is informed by my recent visits to China.”
The article read, “The United States and China are on the brink of war and are beyond the ability to talk. I want to emphasize that by saying that they are on the brink, I don’t mean to say that they will necessarily go over the brink. I mean to say that they are very close to crossing red lines that, if crossed, will irrevocably push them over the brink into some type of war that damages these two countries and causes damage to the world order in severe and irrevocable ways — like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did for Russia and the world, just much bigger.”
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Some experts agree with Dalio, like Gordon Chang. Chang founded the Atlas Organization and believes a war between the Americans and the Chinese before 2025 is plausible. In an interview, Chang noted, “When you have China engaging in dangerous intercepts of the U.S. and other militaries in the region, anything can happen. And we have a military that is not prepared to deal with the probable scenarios. General Mike Minahan, on that January 27th leaked memo, talked about war with China in 2025…Well, it could very well be before that.”
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Some disagree with Dalio, such as Zack Cooper, an American Enterprise Institute senior fellow. He says Dalio’s comments are not in line with information received from officials in the U.S.
Cooper said, “I just don’t think he’s right. I actually think that what we’ve seen, as U.S. officials say recently, including the head of the Indo-Pacific command, that, yes, we have to be worried about a conflict, but that they don’t see what’s happening in the near term. There’s no reason to think we’re on the brink of war right now.”
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Cooper said he believes Dalio is concerned about potential restrictions on Americans investing in China. He said restrictions on investors that put money into China, “especially areas that have dual-use implications that could go into high-end computing, that could eventually help the Chinese military,” is most likely problematic for Dalio, founder of the largest hedge fund company which manages $124 billion.
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