This falls below the predicted Republican grab of 230 seats in the July survey and could be a sign that the Biden communication plan is working - keeping the President in the basement for as long as possible and letting his talking heads not answer questions.
The GOP advantage seems to have dropped due to increased Democratic support over abortion rights, a drop in gas prices, and Democrats winning over those whose choice in the election is based "a lot" on how they feel about former President Donald Trump.
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However, despite these trends, there are more safe Republican seats than Democratic ones in the House, and the GOP needs to flip only four competitive seats to win the 218 seats required for a majority.
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Other results from the poll show:
| • | Trump is net-negative for independents, who would rather have Republicans slam the former President than endorse on the FBI search of his Mar-a-Lago home. Half of independent voters name Trump as a factor in their choice, and by 4-to-1, they're voting to oppose him (far worse than [President Joe] Biden's support-oppose ratio). |
| • | Among independents, 59% said the FBI search was carried out in order to protect national security, while 41% said it was not. |
| • | There's a widespread perception among women that if Republicans gain power, they will make restricting abortion a priority (65%), even more so than inflation (56%). |
| • | By more than 2-to-1, likely voters say their vote for Congress will be to support abortion rights (41%) rather than to oppose them (16%). |
| • | Third-party and hesitant voters for whom the overturning of Roe is a factor say it makes them want to support Democrats over Republicans by 4-to-1. |
| • | The Democrats’ lead among white college-degree-holding women has risen by seven points since July and is currently 13 points. Although it has not rebounded to 2018 levels, the increased backing helps account for some of the shift in seats because these women are critical in key swing districts. |
| • | Biden's job support and specifically his job ratings on handling the economy have gone up. His overall job approval number is the highest it has been among registered voters since February, although it is still low at 45%, compared to 55% who disapprove of the job he is doing as president. |
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This survey was administered with a nationally representative sample of 2,126 registered voters interviewed between August 24-26. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race and education. The margin of error is ±2.4 points.
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