Rose, an Army veteran, previously held the seat when he was elected during the Democrats’ nationwide blue wave in 2018, but he was defeated by Malliotakis in 2020. Now, the Democratic nominee faces a harsher battle as he strives to retake his seat in the Republican-leaning district that surrounds Staten Island and parts of southern Brooklyn.
The 11th District has seen both Democrats and Republicans winning the seat over the last 12 years, but recent internal polling shows Malliotakis with a slight advantage over Rose. Fifty-one percent of voters in the District said they’d back a second term for Malliotakis, against 36% of Rose, according to a poll by the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Malliotakis campaign.
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Nevertheless, some Democrats believe the political environment may be inclining to their favor and will continue to do so now that Rose has clinched the nomination over progressive candidate Brittany Ramos DeBarros. Rose gained an early lead over DeBarros with high-profile endorsements and heavy fundraising, and his win on Tuesday sets him up to an increase in cash flow from national Democrats.
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Rose's fate in the general election may be connected to the approval ratings of President Joe Biden. A large majority, 68%, of the district disapproves of Biden’s performance as president so far, compared to just 30% who approve, according to the NRCC poll.
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However, Rose has downplayed those numbers, telling the New York Post the polling is “about as real as Donald Trump’s claim he won the election.”
New York's congressional maps are gerrymandered, but the state legislature upholds the constitutional right to set the limits, a court found in a Thursday ruling inclined mainly to Republicans.
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The Democratic-controlled legislature engaged in unconstitutional partisan gerrymandering in drawing congressional districts that would have likely seen Democrats retain control of 22 of the state's 26 seats following the results of the 2020 census, the five-judge panel found.
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"We conclude that evidence of the largely one-party process used to enact the 2022 congressional map, a comparison of the 2022 congressional map to the 2012 congressional map, and the expert opinion and supporting analysis of Sean P. Trende, met petitioners' burden of establishing that the 2022 congressional map was drawn to discourage competition and favor Democrats," the judges wrote.
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However, the state constitution "is silent" on how limits should be placed if an independent commission fails to reach a consensus when drawing lines for state-level congressional districts, meaning "the redistricting maps enacted by the legislature pursuant to that legislation are not void" as a result of the process but rather because of the gerrymandered results.
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