The latest data, separately followed by FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, have posed the question: Can President Joe Biden's party defy expectations and deliver a middle-of-the-road outcome in November? The answer is not clear, as two months is an eternity in politics and much can shift. The Democrats' recent political gains are significant, nonetheless, and make for a less apparent outcome in the fall.
From July 21 to now, celebrating just one day less than a month, Biden’s average disapproval rating has dropped nearly 3 percentage points, from 57.2% to 54.3%, according to FiveThirtyEight. His average approval rating, meanwhile, has risen over 3 points, from 37.5% to 40.7%.
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Those are still bleak numbers, but they are an embraced enhancement to the president and his allies.
Take the key “generic ballot” question, which asks voters which party they would like to control Congress. Democrats have trailed Republicans on the generic ballot since November of last year. They’ve followed by 1 or 2 points on average, however, not anywhere close to double-digit margins. Democrats also changed their luck since the start of August on the generic ballot, gradually surpassing Republicans at the start of the month. As of Saturday, Democrats lead Republicans by just over 0.5%.
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Republicans and Democrats are tied in the RealClearPolitics average, which is counted differently than FiveThirtyEight's average. Similar to with FiveThirtyEight, Democrats last led in the RCP average in early November 2021. Democrats took the lead from Republicans by 1% in the RCP average on Tuesday, but the party has not been able to hold on to that lead.
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The GOP is expected to retake the House, even by a smaller margin than initially predicted. The Senate, meanwhile, is a different story, something Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) recognized this week.
“I think there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate. Senate races are just different — they’re statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome,” McConnell said Thursday at an event at the Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce. “Right now, we have a 50-50 Senate and a 50-50 country, but I think when all is said and done this fall, we’re likely to have an extremely close Senate, either our side up slightly or their side up slightly.”
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"Candidate quality," as McConnell put it, appears to be playing a role in key race after key race, with GOP candidates in must-win states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona trailing their Democratic competitors.
Though Biden was riding high at the start of his presidency, pushing through two major legislative achievements: a COVID-19 relief bill and the bipartisan infrastructure deal. Views on his job performance soured in the second half of 2021, however, when his handling of the Afghanistan military withdrawal and the COVID-19 surge were largely condemned.
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