The Marquette Law School survey showed Barnes surpassing Johnson among registered voters, 51% over 44%, an advantage built on the lieutenant governor’s 52% to 38% edge with independents. Barnes, fresh off of his victory in the Democratic primary, also enjoyed better support ratings than Johnson, who is seeking a third term. In the poll, 37% had favorable impressions of the Democrat, and 22% viewed him negatively, compared to the incumbent’s 38% favorable and 47% unfavorable rating.
The Marquette Law School poll was in the field Aug. 10-15 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
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Barnes’s early lead was not the only good news for Democrats in the survey. Gov. Tony Evers (D) narrowly overcame Republican challenger Tim Michels 45% to 43%, with 7% supporting independent candidate Joan Beglinger. Evers also talked about a small 41% to 37% lead among independents. Still, the margin of Evers’s lead has to be encouraging for Michels, who just emerged from a divisive Republican primary. Michels was endorsed in that contest by former President Donald Trump.
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About Trump, his numbers in this key White House battleground state are mediocre, at least according to the Marquette Law School survey.
Fifty-nine percent of Republican voters said they wanted the former president to run again in 2024; 66% of independents do not. And Trump’s favorable ratings in Wisconsin slightly trail President Joe Biden’s. Overall, voters in the state give the former president a 38% favorable and 57% unfavorable rating.
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Biden’s job approval rating clocks in at an otherwise dismal 40% favorable and 55% unfavorable rating.
Partisan support for the candidates in the race for governor is shown in another poll results. Both Democratic and Republican voters are strongly connected behind their respective party’s candidates, with 91% of Democrats supporting Evers and 89% of Republicans supporting Michels. Forty-one percent of independents back Evers, while 37% prefer Michels. The independent candidate, Beglinger, receives 12% from independent voters and 4% from Republicans and 3% from Democrats.
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As in the governor’s race, partisans are well aligned with their party’s candidates, with 95% of Democrats supporting Barnes and 92% of Republicans supporting Johnson. Fifty-two percent of independents back Barnes, while 38% prefer Johnson.
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Among Republicans, 83% say they are sure to vote in November’s elections, as do 82% of Democrats and 66% of independents. Registered voters were asked, “Are you absolutely certain to vote, very likely to vote, are the chances 50-50, or don’t you think you will vote?”
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